Central Bank Survey Reveals New Challenges for 2025
Inflation and Interest Rate Expectations: Central Bank Survey Reveals New Challenges for 2025.
The latest Financial Operators Survey, conducted by the Central Bank, brought several surprises regarding economic expectations for the coming months. The rise in prices of key services and essential goods in the basic basket has increased inflation projections for 2025.
According to respondents, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to reach 0.9% in January, a month that historically records significant increases. "This month comes with rises related to seasonal adjustments, such as toll rate increases," explains Javier Mella, professor at the Faculty of Engineering and Applied Sciences at the Universidad de los Andes.
However, other factors may also be influencing inflationary behavior. "It is important to monitor the increases in the average value of the dollar, which can eventually be passed on to the prices of goods. Additionally, a rise in fuel prices is expected this month," Mella notes.
One of the most significant variables would be the increase in electricity rates. "The most notable factor in terms of magnitude is the third scheduled increase in electricity bills for this month," the economist points out.
This persistent and "sticky" inflation could make the Chilean Central Bank's (BCCh) job more challenging, delaying the expected cuts to the monetary policy rate (TPM). Regarding interest rate projections, respondents anticipate that the BCCh will keep the TPM at 5.00% during the January and March meetings, with a potential decrease to 4.75% within a 12-month horizon (January 2026).
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